October 2nd, 2020 MLB Playoffs Betting Tips


A 2-2 record last night.

The Braves got us the win with a 5-0 win over the Reds to sweep their series. The Reds finished their playoff run with zero runs scored over 22 innings. This is especially crazy when you consider how much of a strength their offense looked like before the season started. That obviously didn’t play out and now they’re going home.

San Diego forced a game three with a big win over the Cardinals, 11-9. Neither started really accounted for all that much in this one, but it was a very impressive performance by the Padres who would simply not give up. They scored nine runs between the sixth and eighth innings to force a game three. They don’t have much pitching left so today’s game should be pretty interesting.

The White Sox and Athletics had another close contest, but the Athletics were able to grab the win here and eliminate the White Sox. This was another weird one with the pitchers as the two starters combined for just 2.1 innings pitched. This loss has to hurt for the Sox who had 12 hits compared to 8 for the Athletics, but took the loss. They had their opportunities, they just couldn’t cash in on them.

I thought the Brewers would do something offensively, but they did not. Clayton Kershaw was absolutely dominated with 8 innings pitched and 13 strikeouts. The Dodgers won 3-0 to sweep the series.

Major League Baseball made the strange decision to postpone the Cubs/Marlins game due to some potential for weather. Honestly, I think they just wanted another game for today.

Best Odds for MLB:

Type of Bet / Prop: Where To Bet:
R + H + E BetOnline
MLB Grand Salami (Total Runs That Day) Bovada
World Series Futures SportsBetting.ag
5 Inning Run Lines BetOnline
1st Inning Moneylines Bovada
Total Team Runs Over/Under Bovada

All tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs Betting Tips:

Marlins: Sixto Sanchez 3.46 ERA/3.50 FIP
Cubs: Yu Darvish 2.01 ERA/2.23 FIP

The day off should help the Cubs shake off what happened in game one and they are looking like a great pick here. Yu Darvish is one of the best pitchers in baseball while the Marlins offense is nothing that scares me all that much.

Sixto shouldn’t go too deep and the Marlins bullpen is very vulnerable. The Cubs offense needs to wake up here if they don’t want to go home. I think they come up big.

I’m going with the 5-inning runline here as it is the best value.

Bet Cubs -0.5 First 5 Innings (-131)

San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips:

Cardinals: Jack Flaherty 4.91 ERA/4.11 FIP
Padres: Bullpen?

I’m not sure what the Padres are doing here on the pitching side, but I like this match-up for them on the offensive end. The Padres had a 119 wRC+ against righties on the season. Flaherty had a better than it looks season (one 9-run start against the Brewers has skewed all his stats), but I am looking at his inning totals and seeing a short one today. He only had two starts longer than five innings all season and one of those was his first start of the year. He was hit pretty hard over his last few starts of the season (minus the Pirates) and I think the Padres will send him to the showers early today.

The Padres are definitely throwing their hands up with regards to the starter and are probably going to use the full bullpen today. They used eight relievers in the last game, but this is an all hands on deck type situation and everyone should be available.

I messed with the system a couple of ways. I put one of their worst starts, Adrian Morejon, throwing four innings here and the system had them winning. I put their team FIP- at 120, way higher than it actually is, and applied it to the whole game and the system still had the Padres winning.

The system is not buying the Cardinals and you shouldn’t either. Bet the Padres regardless of starter.

Let’s go, Dads.

Bet Padres -112

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