October 7th, 2020 MLB Playoffs Betting Tips


A 3-1 record last night.

We took the over of 8 runs in the Braves/Marlins game and the Braves did that themselves as they won 9-5. Ronald Acuna, Travis d’Arnaud, and Dansby Swanson all hit homers in this one.

Houston got a great start out of Framber Valdez and the Astros rolled 5-2 to take a 2-0 series lead. Valdez threw seven innings and only allowed two runs, both on solo home runs. While George Springer provided the offense with two home runs and three RBIs.

We got the win with another over in the Yankees/Rays game. Deivi Garcia apparently had a super short leash and only threw one inning, allowing one run. He gave way to J.A. Happ who the Rays proceeded to hit hard. The Yankees got a big game out of Giancarlo Stanton who finished with two home runs and four RBIs, but it wasn’t enough as the Rays won 7-5.

Finally, we took the over in the late game and it failed to come in. Mike Clevinger made the start for the Padres, but he left in the second with an apparent injury. The bullpen kept a no-hitter going until the fifth that put us behind and the Padres were never able to muster much offense. Final score, 5-1 Dodgers.

Four more games tonight, let’s keep the wins coming.

Best Odds for MLB:

Type of Bet / Prop: Where To Bet:
R + H + E BetOnline
MLB Grand Salami (Total Runs That Day) Bovada
World Series Futures SportsBetting.ag
5 Inning Run Lines BetOnline
1st Inning Moneylines Bovada
Total Team Runs Over/Under Bovada

All tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:

(Game will take place at Minute Maid Park in Houston.)

Marlins: Pablo Lopez 3.61 ERA/3.09 FIP
Braves: Ian Anderson 1.95 ERA/2.54 FIP

Not a great sample size on Anderson who only made six starts during the season, but he had a huge strikeout rate that should fare him well against the Marlins today. He had a 11.41 K/9 in his starts and faces the Marlins who had a 24.8% strikeout rate on the season, second highest of any team still playing. The Marlins are considerably worse against righties with a 89 wRC+ during the season.

Pablo Lopez is a decent pitcher, but again this is the Braves. They had a monster 126 wRC+ during the regular season and they should continue their strong play here. Lopez isn’t going to go deep here and the Marlins bullpen is trash.

Lay the runs.

Bet Braves -1.5

Houston Astros vs. Oakland Athletics Betting Tips:

(Game will take place at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles.)

Athletics: Jesus Luzardo 4.12 ERA/4.19 FIP
Astros: Jose Urquidy 2.73 ERA/4.71 FIP

If the Athletics are going to get back in the series, this is the time to do it.

Urquidy had no strikeout rate to speak of during the regular season and got by on a very low BABIP. Oakland can hit righties with a 104 wRC+ during the season.

A lot of this will depend on Luzardo and how he pitches. He’s been feast or famine throughout the year and I can see him having a very short leash today. For what it’s worth, the Athletics bullpen was much better than the Astros during the regular season.

The system likes the Athletics a bit more than the books do here.

Bet Athletics -103

New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays Betting Tips:

(Game will take place at Petco Park in San Diego.)

Rays: Charlie Morton 4.74 ERA/3.45 FIP
Yankees: Masahiro Tanaka 3.56 ERA/4.42 FIP

The Rays evened the series last night and I think they can take the lead here.

Tanaka got hit pretty hard by the Blue Jays and I can see him being hit hard again here. I can’t see him going deep and the first part of the Yankees bullpen can be hit, as we saw yesterday.

The Rays will need to hit him hard with Charlie Morton on the mound. He’s a great pitcher, but he had a ton of injury issues throughout the year and now makes his first start since September 25th against one of the toughest offenses in baseball. I don’t think the Rays are going to ask much here and four innings would probably be great for them.

I believe in Morton. More than that, I believe the Rays are going to hit Tanaka hard today.

Bet Rays +107

San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Tips:

(Game will take place at Globe Life Park in Arlington.)

Padres: Zach Davies 2.73 ERA/3.88 FIP
Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw 2.16 ERA/3.31 FIP

This is one of those games where the system is pretty clear about what it thinks, but the sportsbooks are making it pretty pricey to bet it.

– The system likes the Dodgers to win, the line is -230.
– It’s not quite a -1.5 bet game either.
– The system likes the Dodgers in the first five innings, but the Dodgers -0.5 is -150.

Looking at all the lines, I think the best way to bet on the Dodgers here is to go under on the first five innings. I think Kershaw can really shine during this time as the Dodgers are “only” a 106 wRC+ team against lefties.

Davies is the wild card, but he did outpitch his FIP all year long and he had two very solid starts against the Dodgers during the regular season.

Bet Dodgers/Padres Under 5 Runs First 5 Innings (-125)

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