September 11th, 2021 MLB Betting Tips

Three MLB System tips for September 11th, 2021 MLB Betting Tips.

A lot of focus is probably on football this weekend and Graeme has you covered for all that. I would sometimes skip this weekend because of that, but these are three solid picks that the System has a lot of faith in.

MLB Betting Tips:

All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.

Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Kyle Freeland 111 146 91 77 104 21 92 12
PHI   98 103 102 95 17 114 6
Zack Wheeler 60 59 124 60 106 25 91 11
COL   98 99 88 81 30 78 26

This is a very easy pick to make. Zack Wheeler is one of the best pitchers on the board, pitching at home and going against an offense that has just a 75 wRC+ against righties on the season.

Kyle Freeland has a 4.69 ERA/4.92 FIP on the season and is facing a Phillies offense that does very well against lefties. He’s struggled with homeruns this season and the Phillies can hit them.

Pick: Bet Phillies -1.5

USA: Best Odds: -101 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.99 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/11 12:21:50 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Milwaukee Brewers at Cleveland Indians Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Corbin Burnes 37 26 147 55 103 17 140 29
CLE   101 101 94 92 22 91 20
Zach Plesac 111 117 73 63 97 10 130 27
MIL   97 108 103 94 18 103 11

I always have to double check my numbers on Corbin Burnes, but no, he’s really that good. He has a 2.38 ERA/1.58 FIP on the season and a huge strikeout rate to go with it. A great match-up for him here as the Indians have a 90 wRC+ against righties.

Zach Plesax is hittable and the Brewers have been doing well of late. It only takes on run with this Burnes starts.

Pick: Bet Brewers -0.5 First 5 Innings

USA: Best Odds: -128 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.78 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/11 12:21:50 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Elieser Hernandez 137 206 104 50 90 4 69 2
ATL   113 106 102 100 10 100 15
Charlie Morton 78 70 122 89 97 10 87 8
MIA   81 117 84 87 25 69 29

This is one of those games where I just don’t want to lay the runs, but I do want to bet on the Braves. I think the offense can do very well here today so let’s just bet on them only.

Not a huge sample on Elieser Hernandez, but he’s been hit pretty hard in the starts he has made. He has a 3.90 ERA/5.57 FIP on the season with a huge homerun rate. The Braves just so happen to be one of the top homerun hitting teams in the league.

Pick: Bet Braves Over 4.5 Runs

USA: Best Odds: -120 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.83 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/11 12:21:50 PM EST but are subject to change.)

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