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MLB tips for September 13th, 2022.
3-1 back on Saturday. Plus, a 5-3 record for college football week two and a big Formula One win on Patreon.
Another unwilling two days off. Sunday was the day where not a single person on the planet cares about baseball and there was just nothing exciting on the schedule last night.
Five MLB tips on Patreon, three are below.
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Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Guardians Betting Tips:
LAA – Jose Suarez 3.77 ERA/4.02 FIP
CLE – Cody Morris 3.00 ERA/5.12 FIP
Small sample on Morris, but really just wondering where the offense is coming from here.
The Guardians have a 80 wRC+ against lefties this season and a 91 wRC+ at home. They have a tough match-up with Suarez who has a 3.04 ERA/2.78 FIP over his past four starts.
The Angels offense has played better of late, but they still have just a 94 wRC+ against righties and a 84 wRC+ on the road. The ZiPS projections have him at a 4.24 ERA/4.00 FIP for the rest of the season. That could be high though as he’s posted a 2.35 ERA/2.46 FIP with a 17.61 K/9 rate at AAA this season. I’m willing to bet on him having a nice start here.
Angels/Guardians Under 4.5 First 5 Innings (-115)
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins Betting Tips:
PHI – Bailey Falter 4.02 ERA/4.97 FIP
MIA – Sandy Alcantara 2.43 ERA/3.07 FIP
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips:
MIL – Matt Bush 3.23 ERA/3.74 FIP (Opener)
STL – Jordan Montgomery 3.08 ERA/3.47 FIP
We’ve been doing well backing Montgomery in his time with the Cardinals and this looks like another spot. Over his past five starts he has a 1.95 ERA/2.29 FIP. The Brewers offense is below average against lefties with just an 86 wRC+, they are worse away from home, and the offense is down to a 90 wRC+ over the last two weeks.
The Brewers are going with Matt Bush as the opener and not sure that will go well for them. The Cardinals hit for a 110 wRC+ against righties and have a 120 wRC+ at home. It may be Luis Perdomo coming in or the Brewers bullpen will make an appearance before the five are up, either way they have struggled of late.
Cardinals -0.5 First 5 Innings (-125)
Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Sox Betting Tips:
COL – Chad Kuhl 5.38 ERA/5.38 FIP
CHW – Michael Kopech 3.78 ERA/4.50 FIP
San Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners Betting Tips:
SDP – Yu Darvish 3.31 ERA/3.49 FIP
SEA – Logan Gilbert 3.23 ERA/3.49 FIP
Logan Gilbert is the hottest pitcher going today with a 2.15 ERA/1.76 FIP over his last five starts. The Padres offense is down to a 94 wRC+ over the past two weeks and a 101 wRC+ over the past month. Maybe they are just average.
The Mariners only have a 105 wRC+ against righties on the season. They are good, but they aren’t a threat to put up 5+ every night. Darvish has had good results of late with a 2.86 ERA/4.11 FIP and should benefit from the pitcher’s park.
Both of the bullpens have been better than average on the season.
Padres/Mariners Under 7.5 (-123)
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