September 15th, 2018 MLB Betting Tips

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A 1-1 record last night.

The only reason that I backed the Nationals yesterday because I thought that Max Scherzer would pitch like the guy he’s been the past few seasons when he won back-to-back Cy Youngs and is right in the mix for another one this year. He didn’t pitch like that at all and the Nationals lost.

Our other pick was the Dodgers over the Cardinals and this one came in easily as the Dodgers shut out St. Louis 3-0.

We have a full slate of games on Saturday and it’s hard to believe that we only have two Saturdays left after this one in the regular season and then it’s playoff time. Very excited for that.

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Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs Betting Tips:

The wind will be blowing in a bit at Wrigley, but I still think this total is set way too low. The Reds offense has hit lefties well all season and they have been hot lately as well. Jon Lester has a 3.57 ERA/4.53 FIP and has really struggled in his home starts this year. He’s past what he once was and I believe he’s hittable here.

Cody Reed is definitely hittable. He has a 5.08 ERA/4.92 FIP on the year and the Cubs have been decent against lefties on the year with a 101 wRC+. I feel good about their offense here. What I don’t feel good about? Either of these bullpens. Each team has a xFIP- of 125+ over the past 14 days. (xFIP- is league average stat with 100 being average and anything over being bad.)

Bet Cubs/Reds Over 8 Runs

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips:

The Brewers won 7-4 here and I think that tonight could have a similar story.

Ivan Nova goes for the Pirates and he’s had struggles on the road this season. He has a 5.43 ERA/5.64 FIP in his road starts and faces a Brewers offense that is hitting the ball well of late. I definitely think he’ll give up some runs here.

Zach Davies goes for the Brewers and he has a 4.75 ERA/4.91 FIP on the year. Nothing impressive and he’s a nearly lock to give up a couple runs. This feels like an easy over to me.

Bet Brewers/Pirates Over 8.5 Runs

Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants Betting Tips:

The Rockies are absolutely rolling of late and they are in control of the NL West. They have a 119 wRC+ over the past 14 days and are just killing it right now. Today they face Madison Bumgarner and it kills me to go against him, but this is the right time to do it. The Rockies have hit lefties well all season and Bumgarner has had some struggles of late.

The real money in this play? The Giants offense, of course. A 48 wRC+ over the past two weeks and facing German Marquez who has been one of the real stars of their season. He’s striking out over ten batters per nine and has a 3.94 ERA/3.50 FIP. This is just a lay-up bet in my opinion and I’m surprised it is at this price.

Bet Rockies -145