September 21st, 2020 MLB Betting Tips

A 3-2 record on Saturday.

We got the win early when the Marlins beat the Nationals over the first five innings as the Marlins delivered one of Patrick Corbin’s worst starts of the year. He ended up with six innings pitched, seven earned runs, and 14 hits allowed so this one was in the bag.

The White Sox also came in with a nice +120 win for us. It took awhile to get there, but the White Sox offense finally broke through in the fifth with two runs off of Trevor Bauer. The White Sox got great pitching across the board as four pitchers combined for a shutout here.

Corbin Burnes had another great start in the Brewers 5-0 win over the Royals. Burnes threw six innings of shutout baseball and finished with nine strikeouts. We laid the runs here and it took a but to get us there, but the Brewers tagged on four runs in the bottom of the eighth to earn us the cover.

The Blue Jays finally had a quiet game in their 3-1 loss to the Phillies so we didn’t get the under there. The other loss was the Angels -1.5 and they ended up winning the game 4-3. All of the Rangers damage was done in the first inning so we were coming from behind from the start.

We have no entered the final week plus of the MLB season. The season will end on September 29th when the expanded playoffs start. The AL picture is pretty much set while the NL should come down to the end of the season with the Marlins, Cardinals, Phillies, Reds, Brewers, Giants, Mets, and Rockies all vying for the final four spots.

The Reds are in as of this writing since they hold the division tiebreaker over the Brewers. Those teams kick off a series tonight that could change all that.

We took yesterday off because of the combination of nothing but early games and the NFL being in full swing. We had another winning weekend in NFL and are now 17-8 on the season. Don’t miss tonight’s NFL tips.

Best Odds for MLB:

Type of Bet / Prop: Where To Bet:
R + H + E BetOnline
MLB Grand Salami (Total Runs That Day) Bovada
World Series Futures
5 Inning Run Lines BetOnline
1st Inning Moneylines Bovada
Total Team Runs Over/Under Bovada

All tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted.

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals Betting Tips:

Phillies: Zack Wheeler 2.62 ERA/3.27 FIP
Nationals: Anibal Sanchez 7.38 ERA/5.76 FIP

An easy pick here as the Phillies have the better pitcher on the mound and the much better offense.

Wheeler has been a bit lucky on the year, but the Nationals are an offense that are unlikely to make him pay for it. They have just a 94 wRC+ on the season against righties and they are a heavy groundball hitting team against a heavy groundball pitcher.

This tip is mostly about Sanchez though as he absolutely stinks. The Phillies should hit him today and they come into today playing some of their best offense of the season with a 113 wRC+ over the past two weeks. (Thanks, Blue Jays.)

Bet Phillies -0.5 First Five Innings (-120)

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians Betting Tips:

White Sox: Dane Dunning 2.33 ERA/3.18 FIP
Indians: Aaron Civale 3.80 ERA/3.51 FIP

These two pitchers are pretty evenly matched with similar strikeout rates, groundball rates, and FIP. Civale has a slight edge on walk rate while Dunning gets more strikeouts. They are about as close as you can get with two starters.

The offenses couldn’t possibly be further apart though. The White Sox have a 110 wRC+ against righties on the season while the Indians have just an 86 wRC+. Over the past two weeks, the Sox are at 112 wRC+ and the Indians are at 76 wRC+.

Chicago is just a way better hitting team and them being a slight underdog here is ridiculous.

Bet White Sox -108

St. Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals Betting Tips:

Cardinals: Adam Wainwright 2.87 ERA/4.02 FIP
Royals: Carlos Hernandez 3.86 ERA/7.04 FIP

A small sample on Hernandez, but he’s making the huge jump from A-ball to the majors and has paid for it early. His last time out he allowed three homeruns in three innings to the Pirates. The Cardinals are much better than the Pirates against righties because everyone in this league is better than the Pirates against righties.

Adam Wainwright has been very lucky this year with a big ERA/FIP discrepancy, but I think the offense can carry him here. The Royals have just an 87 wRC+ against righties on the season.

Bet Cardinals -0.5 First Five Innings (-135)

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