September 22nd, 2020 MLB Betting Tips

An 0-3 record last night. I hate losing.

The two five inning lines didn’t work out for us. The Phillies failed to capitalize on the four walks and four hits allowed by Anibal Sanchez and a rough first inning for Zach Wheeler was all she wrote. They didn’t help themselves all that much with two caught stealing in the first two innings.

The Cards loss hurt a bit more as they had the 1-0 lead heading into the bottom of the fifth before Adam Wainwright allowed the Royals to tie in the bottom of the inning.

We also took the White Sox in the complete game to win outright, but their bullpen let this one slip away. It was tied 4-4 heading into the bottom of the fifth, but then a two-run homerun by Carlos Santana put this one away. The White Sox left 20 men on base here so it’s not like they didn’t have opportunities.

A tough day, but there were a lot of weird results across baseball. Eleven games yesterday and six of them saw underdog winners. Days like this happen. Let’s move on and get back on the winning track.

Best Odds for MLB:

Type of Bet / Prop: Where To Bet:
R + H + E BetOnline
MLB Grand Salami (Total Runs That Day) Bodog
World Series Futures
5 Inning Run Lines BetOnline
1st Inning Moneylines Bodog
Total Team Runs Over/Under Bodog

All tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted.

Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:

Marlins: Jose Urena 6.00 ERA/5.79 FIP
Braves: Bryse Wilson 7.04 ERA/7.75 FIP

Two pitchers that the system absolutely hates and two offenses that have been hitting the ball well lately, yes please.

The Braves offense has a 128 wRC+ against right handed pitchers and I love them against Urena today. He’s a low strikeout, high walk pitcher that is not afraid to give up some homeruns. The Marlins bullpen behind him is very bad while the Braves have been crushing of late.

Wilson really struggles with his control and has given up 7 homeruns over his past 27.2 innings.

Bet Marlins/Braves Over 9.5

Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners Betting Tips:

Astros: Framber Valdez 3.82 ERA/3.01 FIP
Mariners: Ljay Newsome 6.35 ERA/6.63 FIP

The Astros offense has been cold of late, but they get a nice bump today against Newsome. He got crushed by the Giants the last time out and I can see the Astros having some more success here.

This type is equally about Valdez who has been great. The Mariners offense is one of the worst in all of baseball against lefties.

Bet Astros -0.5 First 5 Innings (-130)

Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants Betting Tips:

Rockies: Kyle Freeland 3.75 ERA/4.28 FIP
Giants: Drew Smyly 3.94 ERA/1.75 FIP

I’d put Smyly closer to his ERA than his FIP, but I still like this tip a lot. The Rockies offense has really been struggling of late and they have just an 89 wRC+ against lefties on the year. Smyly has been putting up great strikeout numbers although he’s not expected to go long here. Four good innings is all we’re looking for and the offense should do the rest.

The Giants offense has been crushing all season and they have a 125 wRC+ against lefties on the season. Freeland has had good results, but he’s not much of a strikeout guy and will walk some.

Bet Giants -0.5 First 5 Innings (-110)

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