September 2nd, 2020 MLB Betting Tips

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A 2-1 record last night.

HOLY GIANTS! What a game. It felt weird taking them because they were an underdog on the road, but they absolutely proved us right with a gigantic 23-5 win. Alex Dickerson had a monster game with three homeruns and six RBIs. Donovan Solano and Brandon Crawford also had six RBIs in this game. That is the first time in MLB history that three teammates have had six RBIs each in a single game. Dickerson also tied Willie Mays for the Giants record for total bases in a game. I think this tweet sums up this game perfectly for Rockies fans.

We also took the Indians -0.5 5-inning line that came in easily. Matt Harvey looked very hittable and he was, allowing five runs in the first two innings before heading to the showers. Zach Plesac made a great return to the rotation with a six-inning start and only one run allowed.

On Monday we should’ve bet the White Sox full game line and they lost us the 5-inning bet. Yesterday, we should’ve bet the White Sox 5-inning line as they lost the full game. Honestly, that’s just annoying.

Best Odds for MLB:

Type of Bet / Prop: Where To Bet:
R + H + E BetOnline
MLB Grand Salami (Total Runs That Day) Bovada
World Series Futures
5 Inning Run Lines BetOnline
1st Inning Moneylines Bovada
Total Team Runs Over/Under Bovada

All tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Miami Marlins Betting Tips:

Blue Jays: Hyun-Jin Ryu 2.92 ERA/2.93 FIP
Marlins: Sixto Sanchez 2.25 ERA/3.23 FIP

This is the top pitching match-up on the slate. I’m buying on Ryu while I’m still unsure of what Sixto is. He’s only made two starts on the season and he’s running a 98% left on base percentage. That is not going to continue.

I like the Jays offense and bullpen more than I do the Marlins and I think this line is very friendly to our interests. Go Jays.

Bet Blue Jays -124

Detroit Tigers vs. Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips:

Tigers: Spencer Turnbull 2.97 ERA/3.41 FIP
Brewers: Adrian Houser 4.36 ERA/5.24 FIP

I was surprised to see this line being so in favor of the Brewers. They have terrible numbers against right handed pitchers and Spencer Turnbull has been a very solid starter this season. His walks have been an issue, but the Brewers have a low 8.6% walk rate against right handed pitchers and a 70 wRC+. I think Turnbull will do just fine.

The Tigers aren’t a great offense, but they hit the long ball. They have a .187 isolated slugging percentage on the year and have hit a ton of homeruns already this season. Houser has a 1.64 HR/9 rate with a low strikeout rate. He’s another pitcher with a high left on base percentage that will not continue.

A bit of a curveball here, but everything I am looking at makes the Tigers feel like a great value here.

Bet Tigers +125 (First 5 Innings)

Texas Rangers at Houston Astros Betting Tips:

Rangers: Koby Allard 6.50 ERA/3.43 FIP
Astros: Cristian Javier 3.77 ERA/5.15 FIP

The ERA/FIP is flipped with both of these pitchers, but I am believing Allard’s ERA more than his FIP right now. He has been unlucky with left on base. That said he has a very low groundall rate, but he’s only allowing homeruns on 3.7% of his flyballs. That won’t continue and this Astros offense absolutely crushes lefties. That should go up starting today.

Javier is a good strikeout pitcher and the Rangers offense is prone to striking out. They have just a 63 wRC+ on the season against right handed starts and I can see them making Javier look like an ace today.

Bet Astros -1.5 (-105)

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