May 10th, 2021 Betting Tips: MLB, NBA

Vin

Two MLB System picks and two NBA picks for May 10th, 2021.

Milwaukee Bucks at San Antonio Spurs Betting Tips:

The Milwaukee Bucks control their own playoff destiny and if they finished tied with the Nets, they will get home court advantage in the second round against (presumably) the Nets. That is likely to be a very big deal for that series and could decide who goes to the NBA Finals. What I’m trying to say is, they want it. They want it bad. With Coach Budenholzer’s job potentially on the line, he wants it bad.

San Antonio is on the downturn with losses in six out of their past seven games. They are at home here, but that hasn’t been kind of them to late with a 3-7 record over their past ten.

Bet Bucks -7

Utah Jazz at Golden State Warriors Betting Tips:

The Jazz will once again be without Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell, but it hasn’t really mattered for them of late. They are winners of their last five games and head into Golden State as a big favorite.

The Warriors are also cooking of late, having won four straight games.

I am expecting a lot more offense out of this game than the sportsbooks. The total here is set at 225.5 and I think that is an easy over bet. The Jazz have scored 124+ in their last three games, all without Mitchell and Conley. While the Warriors have scored at least 113 in four out of their past five games.

Bet Warriors/Jazz Over 225.5

All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

What are these stats?

Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Tyler Mahle 3.82 122 109 104 116 26 103 15
PIT 85 60 98 93 85 27 75 29
Mitch Keller 4.58 103 103 138 87 3 81 8
CIN 102 128 107 89 102 10 84 24

The total here is set kind of low considering what I am seeing out of these two pitchers. They both have struggled of late and they both struggle with the walk. Baserunners equal runs.

Keller is coming off a start where he gave up six runs to the Cubs and we have the Reds as a much better offense. While Hoffman has given up 3+ in each of his past two starts. Mahle is also coming off a start where he gave up six runs to the Cubs.

A very small total here at just 7.5. A good bet as the system is seeing at least eight runs.

Pick: Bet Reds/Pirates Over 7.5

Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Martin Perez 3.28 95 79 119 87 3 107 18
BAL   89 101 85 89 24 95 16
Jorge Lopez 6.14 134 86 114 104 17 125 26
BOS   102 91 89 115 1 107 9

The Red Sox have been kind to us in the early goings of the season. They have been excellent on the road this season with a 12-4 record and get a juicy match-up here against the Jorge Lopez and the Orioles. They faced him earlier this season and tagged him for seven runs. Could we see a repeat? I hope so!

Martin Perez has pitched above his talent level early. He has a 4.40 ERA/3.28 FIP thus far. He’s nothing to get excited about, but I think he’s worth a bet. He’s the better starter overall and his match-up is kinder.

Pick: Bet Red Sox -139

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