April 30th, 2021 MLB Betting Tips

Vin

We’re giving the site a facelift so I decided to do the same to the MLB System. I’ve had more success using the full system thus far and have made some adjustments accordingly.

I went through and did a system update to incorporate more of 2020 into the system. I am still using projections as the primary stat in offense and starting pitcher, but I have started to incorporate their 2021 stats into that as well.

A good example would be today’s Cubs/Reds game. Both Wade Miley and Jake Arrieta have FIP projections of 4.4+, but thus far they are at 3.5 and 3.45. Maybe they’ve figured something out, who knows? We need to incorporate that if we’re thinking of going over there. The total is set at 9.5 and with only the projections, the system says over. With the 2021 stats, it’s a lot closer to 9.5.

We now have comments open so feel free to post your tips below.

I’m feeling excited about the system. Four tips today!

All tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP wRC+ Rank wRC+ L14 Rank Bullpen Rank BP L14 Rank Park
NYM Marcus Stroman 3.13 112 3 93 17 65 1 63 2  
PHI Chase Anderson 5.67 104 12 90 22 109 20 110 19 101

Chase Anderson of the Phillies projects as bad and he has been just as bad as the projections state. Walks, not many strikeouts, and homeruns allowed – he is the exact type of pitcher that we love to target. The Phillies bullpen has once again been an issue for them as well as they have already surrendered four walk-off wins. Not good.

The Mets offense is going to get better than this. They just have too much talent for it not to and today is a nice chance for that to happen. Marcus Stroman has looked excellent early and the Phillies have struggled somewhat against righties early.

I would bet this either as a full game or a 5-inning, but the best value is in laying the runs early.

Pick: Bet Mets -0.5 First 5 Innings (-115)

Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP wRC+ Rank wRC+ L14 Rank Bullpen Rank BP L14 Rank Park
MIA Pablo Lopez 3.05 93 27 92 18 104 17 69 4  
WSN Jon Lester 5.14 (2020) 104 12 89 24 111 22 109 17 103

Jon Lester is washed. He was bad last year with a 5.16 ERA/5.14 FIP on no strikeouts and a lot of homeruns. He’s not good and the Marlins have hit lefties early.

Pablo Lopez has had a fantastic start to the season with a 2.93 ERA/3.05 FIP and a big strikeout rate. This is still small sample size territory, but the Nationals have just been bad against righties. They have just a .629 OPS in nearly 500 at-bats. That will turn around, but probably not against Lopez.

Pick: Bet Marlins -131

Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP wRC+ Rank wRC+ L14 Rank Bullpen Rank BP L14 Rank Park
DET Tarik Skubal 6.77 94 25 74 30 135 30 106 16  
NYY Gerrit Cole 0.72 117 2 98 12 71 2 84 10 99

Let’s talk about wind! You throw a ball into the wind and it doesn’t go as far. You throw a ball with the win and suddenly you look like Patrick Mahomes. That’s how it works and it works the same way when you hit a baseball hard.

The wind in this game is off the charts with gusts of 30 MPH blowing out to center. The Yankees can hit homeruns and they have a nice match-up here to do that. I could see them hitting this over on their own. Gerrit Cole has been unhittable early, but even a pop fly could go out today. I can see him giving up some runs.

This is like a Wrigley Field in the summer game with this wind, but the total is set low because the sportsbooks respect Cole too much. Don’t be a fool. Bet on the wind, bet the over.

Pick: Bet Tigers/Yankees Over 7.5

Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP wRC+ Rank wRC+ L14 Rank Bullpen Rank BP L14 Rank Park
BOS Nathan Eovaldi 1.94 104 12 113 3 79 3 78 6  
TEX Kohei Arihara 4.17 91 28 97 13 114 25 97 15 100

Nathan Eovaldi has been excellent in the early going with a 3.77 ERA/1.94 FIP. He’s done it by keeping his walks down and not allowing any homeruns. This is a good match-up for him as the Rangers don’t walk much and strike out a lot.

The Red Sox have continued to impress offensively early and I like the match-up with Arihara. He has been better than the projections thus far, but he’s still not lighting the world on fire. His 5.24 K/9 rate is one of the lowest among starters and I just don’t see that working out well for him here.

Pick: Bet Red Sox -157

1 thought on “April 30th, 2021 MLB Betting Tips”

  1. Comments finally! Good work. Looking forward to seeing the new look. I like most of the tips today. I’m riding the yanks tt over tho. I can’t put any trust in the tigers to help this out.

    Also, on an unrelated note… How about those Red Sox huh!?! Everyone counted us out before the season. I know it’s a long season, but I love this hot start. Verdugo is such a stud and the whole team feeds off that guy’s energy. I love this team.

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